Home prices have returned to 1997 levels October 29, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in Money, Precious Metals, Self Directed IRA/401k, real estate.Tags: self directed, ira, 401k, risk, real estate, gold, inflation, dollar, solo, precious metal, Money, wealth, economy, housing, prices, fed, preservation, median, home, solo 401, case-shiller
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One of the reasons that everyone seems to act so surprised at the “economic meltdown” is because we measure everything in U.S. Dollars while paying little attention to the value of the dollar itself. The dollar is a floating currency. The amount of dollars in circulation can dramatically increase or decrease in any given period of time as seen fit by the central bank, the Fed. An increase in the money supply will push prices up, while a decrease in the money supply pushes prices downward. Therefore, an asset’s true value can remain constant while it’s dollar denominated value can fluctuate - and vice versa.
Looking at statistics or charts denominated in U.S. Dollars can be very deceiving, and if that’s what you’ve been doing, then you were blindsided by the recent collapse of various markets and institutions. If during the past decade you were looking at real prices (as measured in grams of gold) it would have been quite apparent that housing prices were experiencing erratic growth that was likely unsustainable. Gold has been the real currency used by humans since the dawn of time, and even after Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971, all markets continue to follow logical boundaries of movement as priced in gold.
The good news is that (more…)
Self Honesty: Stock Market Strategies Worth Considering June 6, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in Self Directed IRA/401k.Tags: 401k, call, crash, crisis, fund, going long, hold, holding, home builder, index, inverse, investing, ira, lender, loss, mortgage, mutual fund, options, position, profit, put, risk, self directed, selling short, short selling, stock market, subprime, trade, trading
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While I generally avoid mutual funds like the plague, I don’t avoid the stock market altogether. I’ll split what I do in the stock market into two categories: long and short. Either way, I’m honest with myself in admitting that no matter what I do in the stock market, it will be speculative and risky.
Long
“Going long” means buying a stock and expecting its price or income to rise so I can sell later for a profit. There are millions of people who have access to the same information as you, and that is generally reflected in the price of that stock. If you know something non-public about the company, trading it may be illegal for you. I’ve bought individual stocks before; I just treat the situation honestly; it is speculative in nature, and I only make such trades with very small portions of my portfolio.
I don’t go long on mutual funds because I don’t know what I’m going long on. It is virtually impossible to know what I’m actually investing in when I buy shares of a fund.
Short
Selling Short… A short position is the opposite of a long one. Instead of buying low and selling high, selling short is a matter of selling high and then buying low. For me to do this, I borrow shares of a stock and simultaneously sell them at the market price in expectation of a price decrease. To close this position later, I just have to buy back shares of the same stock at the then market price and pay back the borrowed stock. If during my position the stock price declined, I profit; if the stock price increased, I have a loss.
Ex: ABC Company seems to be doomed. It’s currently trading at $50, but I think it will go much lower over the next couple months. I sell 100 shares short. This means I borrow 100 shares and simultaneously sell them for $5,000. A few months later I see the stock price has declined to $35. To close my position, I buy 100 shares back for $3,500. I pay back the borrowed shares and retain the $1,500 profit, less fees and commissions.
I like short selling more than going long. I often notice (more…)
Huge risks for huge returns - A good idea? March 19, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in Self Directed IRA/401k.Tags: investment, self directed, ira, 401k, profit, risk, return
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The previous post explained how thousands of isolated self directed IRA/401k investors could all be making the same mistakes. I see that many self directed accountholders are pursuing high returns by simply taking high risks. I believe intelligent investing is about having an extraordinarily profitable risk/reward ratio - getting high returns with disproportionately low risk.
Let’s imagine that Bob sees that older, run down areas of his city are being redeveloped. Bob also sees that gas prices are going higher and higher, and he thinks that suburban sprawl will be reversed and bring people back into the central areas that are being redeveloped. If Bob’s speculation is correct, the demand for such areas will be increasing - hopefully rapidly.
So, Bob wants to buy a home in the centrally located area that is currently being redeveloped. Let’s say he has $300,000 in his IRA and these properties cost $250,000. So he identifies and purchases a home in the target area using his IRA. He may hit a home run with this investment, but what are the risks? (more…)
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