Is this the bottom? How to recover your stock market losses September 30, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in Money, Self Directed IRA/401k.Tags: Solo 401k, investment, self directed, ira, mortgage, invest, government, solo, crisis, losses, mutual fund, crash, collapse, stock, market, debacle, 401, bailout
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This question is on the minds of millions of Americans. I know exactly how to recover your losses: get out of the U.S. stock market and recoup your losses elsewhere.
S&P 500 loses 28% in one year
The sales pitch of securities salesman is that the stock market goes up around 8% or 9% per year over the long run - so don’t ever sell as a reaction to losing money. Let’s examine this, and assume your investment performance equaled the S&P 500 (even though the majority of mutual funds’ performance is inferior to that of the S&P 500).
Scenario A - You entered the (more…)
The next big party July 19, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in Money, Self Directed IRA/401k, real estate.Tags: Solo 401k, self directed, ira, 401k, invest, inflation, dollar, bubble, economy, crash, economics, recession, depression, stock
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A recent Onion News article has hit dead on what is wanted right now by the masses of the American public. As ridiculous as this article sounds, this type of mentality is exactly what’s been behind many “investment decisions” of the average American in recent past.
Read the article here, and then keep reading my blog if you’d like a more sound approach to investing.
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P.S. Just to be on the safe side, I’ll give you a heads up that The Onion is a satirical, “fake news” organization.
What Causes Inflation? (You may be surprised) - Part 2 July 15, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in Money, Personal Enjoyment.Tags: bls, collapse, crash, dollar, economy, fed, federal reserve, inflation, investing, investment, monetary debasement, montery policy
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In Part 1 of this post, we examined the facts concluding that inflation is caused by monetary debasement. In this follow up, we’ll observe the reason behind why common belief is that inflation is at 3% - 5%. First, let’s recap what was already covered:
What is Inflation?
Inflation is the steady, continual rise in the price of goods. It is typically measured using a “basket of goods”. In this approach, the prices of many different goods are tracked and then integrated using some sort of logical weighting calculation.
What causes inflation?
In most developed countries, money is created by a central banking system. In the US, our central banking system is that of the Federal Reserve, a private bank. Money can be created by the Federal Reserve depositing newly created money into its member banks in exchange for US bonds. This increases the amount of money in existence. Additionally, every bank in the US has the ability to lend out 7 to 11 times as many dollars as it has in deposits. This also increases the amount of money in existence. With an increased money supply, prices rise. A continually increasing money supply, aka monetary debasement, causes inflation.
What is the current rate of inflation?
This is where there is a difference of opinion. For decades, inflation has been estimated using a “basket of goods” approach. In this method the price of each of a variety of goods is tracked, a logical weighting is applied, and the output is the rate of inflation, usually annualized. Under this method we can see inflation swinging up and down through economic cycles. In the early 1980’s, this data shows inflation at nearly 15% per annum. This is based on the published figures of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In the early 1990’s the methodology of inflation reporting changed drastically, thus rendering the BLS “official” figures virtually useless. Unfortunately, these BLS figures continue to be used as if they were accurate.
A change in calculation method
Around 1993, Alan Greenspan argued that there was a flaw (more…)
Self Honesty: Stock Market Strategies Worth Considering June 6, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in Self Directed IRA/401k.Tags: 401k, call, crash, crisis, fund, going long, hold, holding, home builder, index, inverse, investing, ira, lender, loss, mortgage, mutual fund, options, position, profit, put, risk, self directed, selling short, short selling, stock market, subprime, trade, trading
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While I generally avoid mutual funds like the plague, I don’t avoid the stock market altogether. I’ll split what I do in the stock market into two categories: long and short. Either way, I’m honest with myself in admitting that no matter what I do in the stock market, it will be speculative and risky.
Long
“Going long” means buying a stock and expecting its price or income to rise so I can sell later for a profit. There are millions of people who have access to the same information as you, and that is generally reflected in the price of that stock. If you know something non-public about the company, trading it may be illegal for you. I’ve bought individual stocks before; I just treat the situation honestly; it is speculative in nature, and I only make such trades with very small portions of my portfolio.
I don’t go long on mutual funds because I don’t know what I’m going long on. It is virtually impossible to know what I’m actually investing in when I buy shares of a fund.
Short
Selling Short… A short position is the opposite of a long one. Instead of buying low and selling high, selling short is a matter of selling high and then buying low. For me to do this, I borrow shares of a stock and simultaneously sell them at the market price in expectation of a price decrease. To close this position later, I just have to buy back shares of the same stock at the then market price and pay back the borrowed stock. If during my position the stock price declined, I profit; if the stock price increased, I have a loss.
Ex: ABC Company seems to be doomed. It’s currently trading at $50, but I think it will go much lower over the next couple months. I sell 100 shares short. This means I borrow 100 shares and simultaneously sell them for $5,000. A few months later I see the stock price has declined to $35. To close my position, I buy 100 shares back for $3,500. I pay back the borrowed shares and retain the $1,500 profit, less fees and commissions.
I like short selling more than going long. I often notice (more…)
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