Jeff Nabers’ Self Directed IRA & Solo 401(k) Blog

A recent Onion News article has hit dead on what is wanted right now by the masses of the American public. As ridiculous as this article sounds, this type of mentality is exactly what’s been behind many “investment decisions” of the average American in recent past.

Read the article here, and then keep reading my blog if you’d like a more sound approach to investing.

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P.S. Just to be on the safe side, I’ll give you a heads up that The Onion is a satirical, “fake news” organization.

I recently talked to a real estate investor friend online who I have known for about 4 years. He started investing in the height of the housing bubble, and now I think he’s finding it difficult to shed the “bubble mentality”. In our conversation I did my best to cause him to question his perspective and his investing strategy.

I’ve pasted our Instant Message conversation below (with the screen names changed for privacy). I didn’t correct capitalization, punctuation or spelling errors, so you’ve been forewarned.

I thought this would be a useful post because of how tightly this gentleman seemed to grip onto his investment strategy he’d been using since 2004. How tightly are you gripping onto your investment strategy?

[19:00] re_investor: HI Jeff
[19:00] re_investor: How are you buddy?
[19:00] jeff_nabers: Hey there
[19:01] jeff_nabers: I’m doing good. How are you?
[19:01] re_investor: How have you been doing?
[19:01] re_investor: Im alright!
[19:01] jeff_nabers: How’s the RE market up there?
[19:01] re_investor: OH its tight!!
[19:01] re_investor: Its flat and declined over the pervious 6 months
[19:01] re_investor: TOUGH
[19:02] jeff_nabers: what about cash flow?
[19:02] re_investor: Its cashing …
[19:02] re_investor: but, its still tight. I actually was in the process of buying another one
[19:02] re_investor: I stoped canceled the purchase/sale
[19:03] jeff_nabers: how did your previous investments turn out?
[19:03] re_investor: Oh great actually..
[19:03] re_investor: I sold the one in Fairview park
[19:03] re_investor: I got a cash buyer
[19:03] re_investor: The other three are turning out fine
[19:04] re_investor: The one house I have I have 67K in equity right now
[19:04] re_investor: I am currently renting it for 1K
[19:04] re_investor: but, I cant do anything with it until the maket comes back
[19:04] jeff_nabers: Sounds decent
[19:04] jeff_nabers: how’s the cash flow return?
[19:04] re_investor: Its about 300 dollars
[19:04] jeff_nabers: renting it at $1k what do you net per year?
[19:04] jeff_nabers: i see so 6k per year
[19:05] jeff_nabers: how much money did you put into it?
[19:05] re_investor: I was just in the process of refinancing it
[19:05] re_investor: and the mtg company I was using closed up
[19:05] re_investor: so the refi stoped
[19:05] jeff_nabers: how much money did you put in tha tone?
[19:06] re_investor: I was bummed out
[19:06] re_investor: I put in 15K
[19:06] re_investor: to fix it up
[19:06] jeff_nabers: and the down payment was?
[19:06] re_investor: It was alot
[19:06] re_investor: I cant remember…
[19:07] re_investor: I am trying to do something with the equity.. but, I dont know what
[19:07] re_investor: There is not much I can do
[19:07] jeff_nabers: you don’t remember how much you put down?
[19:08] re_investor: why are you wanting to no such details?
[19:08] jeff_nabers: i’m curious what your return is
[19:08] jeff_nabers: cashing out would only decrease your cashflow
[19:08] re_investor: I got into it on no money down
[19:08] re_investor: I had good credit
[19:08] jeff_nabers: well then i would never refi it and never sell it
[19:09] jeff_nabers: you are making a 40% annualized return on the cash you put in
[19:09] re_investor: yeah. Its only worth so much you know
[19:09] jeff_nabers: why would you ever want to take an asset like that off your books?
[19:09] re_investor: To use the equity in the house
[19:09] jeff_nabers: with 10 - 15 of those you’d never have to work again
[19:09] jeff_nabers: to use the equity to do what? continue working real estate like a job?
[19:10] re_investor: right. I just need 9 - 14 more of them
[19:10] jeff_nabers: do your other properties cash flow like this one? (more…)

I just got done interviewing John Rubino, co-author of The Collapse of the Dollar - Make a Fortune by Investing in Gold & Other Hard Assets, and it was quite interesting. Rubino stated that:

Over the last 7 years the stock market has dropped [as significantly] as it did during the Great Depression.

“WHAAAT?!!” you say. He explains that our perception of this strong bear market has been softened by the declining value of the dollar. In the spirit of comparing apples to apples, we must first consider that in the late 1920’s and early 1930’s the dollar was fixed to gold. So, in essence, the stock market’s decline was measured in gold. According to Rubino, you would see a depression-like chart if you were to measure the past few years of the stock market in gold.

The most convincing thing about his perspective is that he accurately predicted the burst of the housing bubble… in 2003. He forecasted that those who would suffer the most from the popping bubble would be homebuilders’ stocks, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, and real estate prices in “hot” (at the time) areas. He even went on to explain that the contributing factions would spill over into other parts of the economy including financial services companies, and banks themselves. At that time, the idea of one of the country’s largest investment banks (Bear Sterns) becoming insolvent sounds crazy, but Rubino warned us all with How to Profit from the Coming Housing Bust: Money-Making Strategies for the End of the Housing Bubble. In fact, if you would have followed his advice to the “T”, you would have profited immensely , provided that (more…)