Jeff Nabers’ Self Directed IRA & Solo 401(k) Blog

A recent Onion News article has hit dead on what is wanted right now by the masses of the American public. As ridiculous as this article sounds, this type of mentality is exactly what’s been behind many “investment decisions” of the average American in recent past.

Read the article here, and then keep reading my blog if you’d like a more sound approach to investing.

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P.S. Just to be on the safe side, I’ll give you a heads up that The Onion is a satirical, “fake news” organization.

In Part 1 of this post, we examined the facts concluding that inflation is caused by monetary debasement. In this follow up, we’ll observe the reason behind why common belief is that inflation is at 3% - 5%. First, let’s recap what was already covered:

What is Inflation?

Inflation is the steady, continual rise in the price of goods. It is typically measured using a “basket of goods”. In this approach, the prices of many different goods are tracked and then integrated using some sort of logical weighting calculation.

What causes inflation?

In most developed countries, money is created by a central banking system. In the US, our central banking system is that of the Federal Reserve, a private bank. Money can be created by the Federal Reserve depositing newly created money into its member banks in exchange for US bonds. This increases the amount of money in existence. Additionally, every bank in the US has the ability to lend out 7 to 11 times as many dollars as it has in deposits. This also increases the amount of money in existence. With an increased money supply, prices rise. A continually increasing money supply, aka monetary debasement, causes inflation.

What is the current rate of inflation?

This is where there is a difference of opinion. For decades, inflation has been estimated using a “basket of goods” approach. In this method the price of each of a variety of goods is tracked, a logical weighting is applied, and the output is the rate of inflation, usually annualized. Under this method we can see inflation swinging up and down through economic cycles. In the early 1980’s, this data shows inflation at nearly 15% per annum. This is based on the published figures of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the early 1990’s the methodology of inflation reporting changed drastically, thus rendering the BLS “official” figures virtually useless. Unfortunately, these BLS figures continue to be used as if they were accurate.

A change in calculation method

Around 1993, Alan Greenspan argued that there was a flaw (more…)

Some of the most prominent explanations of the cause of inflation can be extremely confusing and often end up leading the reader/inquirer to conclude “Ahh, it’s just too complicated. We can’t really put our finger on it, and there are many different factors.” In this post, I aim to undo that surrender of understanding and replace it with a simple, accurate explanation.

What is inflation?

Inflation is the steady, continual rise in the price of goods. It is typically measured using a “basket of goods”. In this approach, the prices of many different goods are tracked and then integrated using some sort of logical weighting calculation.

The Cause… Theory #1 - Demand-Pull Inflation

“Too much money chasing too few goods”. This is the theory that says inflation is caused by demand out pacing supply. Believers of this theory pat themselves on the back about inflation as if it is evidence of a growing economy. This kind of fantastical belief is possible only through naivety. A global review of inflation teaches us that some of the most rapid inflation occurs in economies that aren’t growing at all. Conclusion: False.

The Cause… Theory #2 - Cost-Push Inflation

“When companies’ costs go up, they have to raise their prices to maintain a profit margin.” This may explain fragmented price fluctuations, but remember that inflation is the steady rise in price of goods (in general). If prices are stable across the board, but wheat spikes in price, it won’t single handedly result in substantial inflation. Even if wheat is in the “basket of goods” that we use to calculate inflation, its rise in price will minimally affect the overall computation for inflation. Another thing to note is this: What is causing the companies costs to go up? The Cost-Push Inflation theory is almost like saying “Rising prices are caused by rising prices”. Huh? Conclusion: False.

Supply & demand of goods have nothing to do with inflation. Let’s look at the rising price of oil, and examine (more…)

Has your saving really been a loss? Has your investing really been saving? Let’s find out. To start, here are my definitions…

Investing - the placing of assets to build wealth in a way where overall return can be maximized and risk minimized confidently, competently, and consistently.

Saving - the act of reducing spending in an effort to accumulate wealth.

Surrendering - the placing of money into a situation where you have little to no understanding of where your money actually went… and thus little or no control of what happens to it.

Building on that, my philosophy of wealth building contains 4 simple truths:

1. Investing primarily in the stock market is only possible on a large scale (like Warren Buffett) or with nonpublic information. The latter is illegal and can result in imprisonment.
2. In the current inflationary environment, saving US dollars results in a loss of wealth… even in a CD or money market fund.
3. The average person’s investable assets are inside retirement accounts, such as IRAs or 401(k) plans.
4. The average person cannot invest until they restructure their retirement accounts to have unrestricted investment options.

What you’ve called investing may have actually been saving and surrendering under my definitions.

Investing into a stock may be (more…)

If there is one conversation central to society right now… it’s energy. More specifically oil. With gasoline passing the $4 per gallon mark in many parts of the country, it’s hard not to wonder what are our alternatives to the internal combustion engine automobile.

In the mid 90s, GM came out with quite a successful electric vehicle (EV), but mysteriously repossessed and destroyed all of them. While there are many theories as to their GM’s motives, perhaps it is more useful to focus on the car companies who are producing efficient, working, zero-emmissions vehicles that require no gasoline, oil, or internal explosions to operate:

Telsa Motors

Elon Musk, cofounder of leading online payment processor Paypal, has spearheaded the development and productions of the Tesla Roadster…

Driving Range: 221 miles
0 - 60 mpg in under 4 seconds
To Speed: 125 mph
Energy cost: $0.02 per mile (about 10 times cheaper than a gasoline car)
Retail Price: $110,000
Full charge: about 3 hours

This isn’t a “we hope to offer it in the future” car. It’s already been produced. Over 600 have been sold or reserved, and there are an additional 400 on the waiting list. The roadster is a car that will hang with Ferraris and other exotic, high performance sports cars.

More importantly, Tesla plans to introduce a $60,000 luxury sedan in 2009, and a $30,000 model soon thereafter.

EV’s Longer car life

If you think $110k or $60k for an electric vehicle is expensive, think again. While the (more…)

Probably one of the must unknown facets of retirement planning is that you can distribute before age 59 ½ for any reason without paying the extra 10% early distribution tax. How?

Substantially Equal Periodic Payments

1. Set a distribution schedule calculated using IRS tables
2. The schedule must have regular payments of a certain consistent amount.
3. You must make receive these distributions from your retirement account either until you reach age 59 ½ or for a 5 year period… whichever is longer.

Internal Revenue Code Section 72(t) is where the extra 10% tax for “early distributions” (before age 59 ½) is imposed. However, if you read on to IRC 72(t)(2)(A)(iv) it is explained that the 10% tax is not applicable to any distribution that is part of a series of Substantially Equal Periodic Payments - or SEPP for short.

To give you an idea of how this works using calculations from IRS life expectancy tables, let’s examine a fictional case study with round numbers for simplicity:

Jared is considering early retirement at age 45, and over the years he has grown his IRA to an asset value of $2,000,000. He isn’t sure whether he wants to completely retire, work part time, pursue a career change, or start a new business. Let’s take a look at his options… (more…)

We all have that friend who is financially irresponsible. You know, they have a new cell phone every time one comes out. They lease a brand new car every 2 years. Their credit cards are maxed out. And they don’t really have a game plan on how to pay for the stuff they have. The best I can tell is that our government is kind of like that. If you look at the timeline, all major tax changes result in increased taxation. Let’s just look at what happened with Social Security:

• In 1935, the Social Security Act was passed, and the Social Security benefits systems was created. Benefits were not to be taxed.
• In 1937, FICA began payroll taxes of 2% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
• In 1950, payroll taxes were raised to 3% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
• In 1956, payroll taxes were raised to 4% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
• In 1972, payroll taxes were raised to 9.2% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
• In 1977, payroll taxes were raised to 9.9% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
• In 1983, payroll taxes were raised to 10.8% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
• Starting in 1984, up to 50% of an individual’s or couple’s Social Security benefits were (more…)

I recently talked to a real estate investor friend online who I have known for about 4 years. He started investing in the height of the housing bubble, and now I think he’s finding it difficult to shed the “bubble mentality”. In our conversation I did my best to cause him to question his perspective and his investing strategy.

I’ve pasted our Instant Message conversation below (with the screen names changed for privacy). I didn’t correct capitalization, punctuation or spelling errors, so you’ve been forewarned.

I thought this would be a useful post because of how tightly this gentleman seemed to grip onto his investment strategy he’d been using since 2004. How tightly are you gripping onto your investment strategy?

[19:00] re_investor: HI Jeff
[19:00] re_investor: How are you buddy?
[19:00] jeff_nabers: Hey there
[19:01] jeff_nabers: I’m doing good. How are you?
[19:01] re_investor: How have you been doing?
[19:01] re_investor: Im alright!
[19:01] jeff_nabers: How’s the RE market up there?
[19:01] re_investor: OH its tight!!
[19:01] re_investor: Its flat and declined over the pervious 6 months
[19:01] re_investor: TOUGH
[19:02] jeff_nabers: what about cash flow?
[19:02] re_investor: Its cashing …
[19:02] re_investor: but, its still tight. I actually was in the process of buying another one
[19:02] re_investor: I stoped canceled the purchase/sale
[19:03] jeff_nabers: how did your previous investments turn out?
[19:03] re_investor: Oh great actually..
[19:03] re_investor: I sold the one in Fairview park
[19:03] re_investor: I got a cash buyer
[19:03] re_investor: The other three are turning out fine
[19:04] re_investor: The one house I have I have 67K in equity right now
[19:04] re_investor: I am currently renting it for 1K
[19:04] re_investor: but, I cant do anything with it until the maket comes back
[19:04] jeff_nabers: Sounds decent
[19:04] jeff_nabers: how’s the cash flow return?
[19:04] re_investor: Its about 300 dollars
[19:04] jeff_nabers: renting it at $1k what do you net per year?
[19:04] jeff_nabers: i see so 6k per year
[19:05] jeff_nabers: how much money did you put into it?
[19:05] re_investor: I was just in the process of refinancing it
[19:05] re_investor: and the mtg company I was using closed up
[19:05] re_investor: so the refi stoped
[19:05] jeff_nabers: how much money did you put in tha tone?
[19:06] re_investor: I was bummed out
[19:06] re_investor: I put in 15K
[19:06] re_investor: to fix it up
[19:06] jeff_nabers: and the down payment was?
[19:06] re_investor: It was alot
[19:06] re_investor: I cant remember…
[19:07] re_investor: I am trying to do something with the equity.. but, I dont know what
[19:07] re_investor: There is not much I can do
[19:07] jeff_nabers: you don’t remember how much you put down?
[19:08] re_investor: why are you wanting to no such details?
[19:08] jeff_nabers: i’m curious what your return is
[19:08] jeff_nabers: cashing out would only decrease your cashflow
[19:08] re_investor: I got into it on no money down
[19:08] re_investor: I had good credit
[19:08] jeff_nabers: well then i would never refi it and never sell it
[19:09] jeff_nabers: you are making a 40% annualized return on the cash you put in
[19:09] re_investor: yeah. Its only worth so much you know
[19:09] jeff_nabers: why would you ever want to take an asset like that off your books?
[19:09] re_investor: To use the equity in the house
[19:09] jeff_nabers: with 10 - 15 of those you’d never have to work again
[19:09] jeff_nabers: to use the equity to do what? continue working real estate like a job?
[19:10] re_investor: right. I just need 9 - 14 more of them
[19:10] jeff_nabers: do your other properties cash flow like this one? (more…)

Did you get your $600 check yet? What will you do with it? Surveys are saying that most Americans will use their “Economic Stimulus” check to deal with gas, food, and catching up on bills. This doesn’t stimulate the economy.

Consumer spending stimulates the economy. In other words, the Department of Treasury sent out checks to us all totaling $150 billion in hopes that we would buy clothes, jewelry, and electronics. Let’s take a step back for a moment and assess how our system works:

Two thirds of our nation’s economic activity is coming from people spending money. When our economy is “going good” it is because people are spending money - often more than they make or have. When our economy is “doing badly” it is because people are saving money or living within their means.

Finances 101

This is America and everyone wants to be rich. How does one become rich?

Make more money than you spend.

Or spend less than you make… in case that hits closer to home for you.

A person following those rules is becoming wealthy, while a person who practices opposite rules is becoming poorer. Here’s where things start to look funny. Our economic system is booming when people are becoming (more…)

One investment philosophy that has grown in popularity is “Because most mutual funds can’t even outperform stock indices, just invest in index funds.” This idea builds on the assumption that “over the long haul, the stock market goes up 10% each year.” Guess what…

The stock market does not go up 10% per year in the long run

• The math is just plain wrong. Lying averages tell us if you average the annual returns of the stock market it will equal its performance… but, as the name implies, it is not true. Lying averages tell you that if you are aiming for a 10% average return, and you have a 20% loss one year, it will take a 30% gain the next year to get back on track. Truthful math will tell you it will take a 50% gain just to get back on track for a 10% average annual return. Think about that in light of the stock market activity in 2000, 2002, and 2007.
• Any returns less than inflation is truly a loss. With inflation currently at 11.58%, you’ll need a 21.58% annual return to grow your wealth at 10% per year.

Just look at the last 10 years of data…

On the chart above, the red line reflects (more…)